Category Archives: Stock Market

10 years on from Lehmans and what has the financial services sector learnt?

The financial crash after the Lehman Brothers collapse saw the biggest global monetary crisis since the end of WW2. It led to a lost economic decade for many – average incomes in the UK still languish far behind their 2008 peak.

15 September 2008, the fall of Lehman sent shockwaves around the world. It was (and still is) the largest bankruptcy of all time. The colossal investment bank fell with $639 billion in assets and $619 billion in debt.

Founded in Montgomery, Alabama by German immigrants in 1850, the firm grew towards the end of the 19th century as America became an economic powerhouse. For an investment bank that survived the railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s, the Great Depression of the 1930s and two World Wars, it was a reckless rush into the doomed subprime mortgage market that proved a fatal error. Continue reading

END OF SUMMER REVIEW 2018

This time last year we produced our first End of Summer Review. We described it as a ‘reflection on some key events over the last few months’: would they, we wondered, ‘give us an idea of what might happen in the run up to Christmas?’

First of all, let’s reflect on what the world looked like 12 months ago. Continue reading

September Market Commentary

August used to be known as the ‘silly season’. Everyone who made the news was away on holiday, nothing happened and newspapers were desperate to fill their pages. So rather more obscure stories made it into print…

That, of course, was before Donald Trump. And Brexit. And Venezuela, Argentina and Greece. And…

In short, August is now just another month and this year it saw the world’s two most powerful economies, the USA and China, continuing their trade war as the US imposed an additional round of tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing inevitably retaliated. Domestically, there were more woes for Donald Trump as more members of his former inner-circle decided they would rather do a deal with the prosecutors than the President. Could he be impeached? At this stage it would seem unlikely but the net is tightening. Continue reading

August Market Commentary

 

The news in July really could not have been much worse. The threat of a trade war between the US and China simmered throughout the month, and then on 31st July President Trump ramped up the tension with proposals of a 25% tariff on $200bn (£152bn) of Chinese imports.

China has already placed retaliatory tariffs on some American imports in response to the first wave of ‘Trump Tariffs’ (they even have their own page on Wikipedia now) and will surely do the same to counter this latest move. Small wonder that credit ratings agency, Moody’s, warned that there could ultimately be tariffs on 5% of total world imports if the trade war continues to escalate. Continue reading

Post-Brexit trade uncertainty: A difficult time for British exports.

For British companies who rely heavily on the E.U. export market, Brexit has been a nightmare, to say the least. Until recently, though, the full effects on British exporters have been unclear.

Some versions of Brexit currently under consideration by the cabinet could potentially cut U.K. exports by as much as a third, according to a study by a team of trade experts at the University of Sussex. The study also predicted that a fall in British exports would hit ‘Leave’ voting areas such as Sunderland, Coventry and Derby the hardest. Continue reading

July Market Commentary

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Let us invite you to travel back in time to June 2016, to the day after the Brexit referendum. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, campaigning in the US Presidential election is in full swing.

You are offered two glimpses into the future. The first is that two years on, the UK has apparently made no real progress in the Brexit negotiations. The second is that Donald Trump has been elected President and has had a successful meeting with Kim Jong-un. You would have dismissed both of them as ridiculous and yet that is exactly what June brought us, as Theresa May called yet another Brexit crisis meeting and President Trump met the leader of North Korea in Singapore.

…And then the President went on to announce a raft of tariffs on imported goods – from both China and Europe – which may well see the threatened global trade war develop. Both China and the EU were swift to announce retaliatory tariffs, and (unsurprisingly) June was a month in which none of the major stock markets we cover managed to gain any ground. Continue reading

Cutting through the noise – how does a financial adviser help?

‘Stock market closing at an all time high’; ‘The bubble’s burst’; ‘The stock market is crashing’; ‘Shares have gone through the roof – how could they go any higher?’; ‘House prices plummet by 30%’; ‘UK economy in weakest growth’; ‘The end is near for the bear market’; ‘Stocks dangerously close to unique kind of bull market’; ‘Not seen such market volatility since the 1987 crash’; ‘Warnings of market correction ahead’.

Don’t worry, these are just examples taken at any point in time. But you know what it’s like – you listen to the radio and hear one thing, then open a newspaper and read the opposite. You go on social media and hear all manner of contradictory views and opinions. You chat with friends in the pub who’ve got as many different pieces of advice as there are types of beer or artisan gins on offer!

Noise, noise, noise!

Everyone’s an expert. Everyone’s telling you what to do. But how do you know who to trust?

The good news is that if you’re working with a financial adviser, you don’t need to listen to that all clamour around you. The right adviser will help you understand what you can control and give you a sense of perspective.

For example, a recent study showed that investors value the following from their relationships with their advisers:

35% sense of security/peace of mind

23% knowledge of personal financial situations

20% progress towards their goals

14% investment returns

As financial advisers, we’re only too aware that markets will go up and markets go down but we can help you take a long term view. By gaining an understanding of your overall goals and objectives, we can give you reassurance over short term fluctuations. We’ll discuss your risk profile with you and adjust it as market conditions and your own particular circumstances change. The regular reviews we’ll have with you will keep your plan on track. As a result, you’ll find that because your decisions are now part of a strategic financial plan instead of isolated choices, you won’t feel so bombarded by every single news item.

By working with a financial adviser, you’ll know that we can cut through the conflicting messages and help you see past the headlines to the hard facts you need. It’s our job to be able to give you a sense of perspective when the markets may seem in turmoil. So when others may be tempted to made sudden withdrawals or changes, we’ll give you the ressaurance to stay invested. Alternatively, when it’s right to move, we’ll give you the confidence to change. It’s this kind of discipline that can make all the difference in terms of investment performance.

So rather than being swayed by sensationalist headlines or being worried by the ups and downs of the markets, use your financial adviser to help you ‘keep your head when all about you are losing theirs’.

May Market Commentary

It looked for a long time that the main headline for this commentary would be the opening salvos in a trade war between China and the USA. The International Monetary Fund published a bullish report on world trade, saying that global growth will hit a 7 year high of 3.9% this year – giving a stark warning at the same time that trade risked being ‘torn apart’ by a protracted trade war.

But then came the news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s, historic visit to South Korea and his meeting with President Moon Jae-in. There followed a bromance which would have been impossible just a few months ago, and a commitment to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons. The meeting would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the year when North Korea was boasting of being able to reach the US mainland with its rockets: now Pyongyang says it will invite US observers to witness the shutdown of its nuclear site in May.

By the end of the month even the China/US threats and counter-threats seemed to have receded a little and most of the major stock markets which we cover made up losses suffered early in the month on fears of a trade war. There was, however, one significant fly in the ointment as the price of oil continued to climb: Brent crude went past $72 a barrel in light of the continuing troubles in Syria and the instability in the region. Continue reading

What is a ‘market correction’?

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The start of 2018 has been an eventful time in the world of the stock market. After hitting highs at the end of January, both the Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s 500 saw a considerable drop at the start of February, a fall from which the markets have now mostly recovered. At the time, however, this was reported as a ‘market correction’ by most media outlets. But what exactly does a correction mean in this context? Continue reading

Emerging markets: looking back on 2017 and forward on 2018

2017 was a good year for Emerging Markets, which continued their recent strong run, keeping them on track to outperform Developed Markets in back-to-back years for the first time since 2009/10. Compared to 2016, which offered only marginal outperformance thanks to the election result in the US in November causing a sharp market correction, the performance throughout 2017 was relatively much stronger. Continue reading