When we leave the European Union we will also leave the EU customs union. The question we all want to know the answer to is ‘what does that mean for me?’ Well first, let’s have a quick reminder of what the customs union is. In short, it’s an agreement between European member states that there will be no internal tariffs on goods that move between them. Once goods are within the EU, they can also travel freely. This means that administrative and financial barriers to trade within the EU are massively reduced.Continue reading →
It looked for a long time that the main headline for this commentary would be the opening salvos in a trade war between China and the USA. The International Monetary Fund published a bullish report on world trade, saying that global growth will hit a 7 year high of 3.9% this year – giving a stark warning at the same time that trade risked being ‘torn apart’ by a protracted trade war.
But then came the news of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s, historic visit to South Korea and his meeting with President Moon Jae-in. There followed a bromance which would have been impossible just a few months ago, and a commitment to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons. The meeting would have been unthinkable at the beginning of the year when North Korea was boasting of being able to reach the US mainland with its rockets: now Pyongyang says it will invite US observers to witness the shutdown of its nuclear site in May.
By the end of the month even the China/US threats and counter-threats seemed to have receded a little and most of the major stock markets which we cover made up losses suffered early in the month on fears of a trade war. There was, however, one significant fly in the ointment as the price of oil continued to climb: Brent crude went past $72 a barrel in light of the continuing troubles in Syria and the instability in the region. Continue reading →
“The first month of 2018 was a good one for the major stock markets which we cover in this Bulletin. We report on 12 markets and 11 of them made gains in January – in some cases, spectacular gains, which many investors would regard as more than adequate for a full year.”
Sadly, February was the exact opposite: 10 of the 12 markets on which we report were down in the month, following a global sell-off at the start of February. But that is the nature of savings and investment: stock markets rise and fall. Saving and investing is a long term business: a marathon not a sprint. Continue reading →
Another year seems to have flown by in the space of about five months. December, in particular, seemed to go past in a blur.
It was, however, the month when some progress was – finally – made in the Brexit negotiations. It was also the month when Scotland used its tax-raising powers to increase income tax, when Germany worried about Chinese spies using fake LinkedIn profiles and when yet more sanctions were heaped on the North Korean regime – which were predictably condemned as an ‘act of war’. Continue reading →
What’s the saying? ‘Close, but no cigar’. That’s how it was in October as all but two of the markets we cover rose in the month. Brazil’s market did manage to stagger up by just 14 points, meaning it was unchanged in percentage terms, but the Russian stock market let the side down, falling back by 1% in October.
While the stock markets were having a good month, the Brexit talks were having – another – stagnant month. Having been to Florence in late September, Mrs May then went and pressed the flesh in Brussels, but the warm words soon gave way to more bickering about the UK’s divorce bill. With the date for the UK’s departure from the EU another month closer, talks about a post-EU trade deal are nowhere near starting. Continue reading →
July got off to the best possible start when Janet Yellen, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, announced that there would be no more financial crises “in our lifetime.” Speaking on a trip to London, she said that the reforms of the banking system since the 2007 to 2009 crash had “minimised the risk of a similar disaster happening again.” Phew, that’s alright then. And if you’re reading this commentary, Ms Yellen, just skip over the bit about Italy… Continue reading →
Well, apart from the chaotic General Election in the UK. Oh – and the decisive win for Emmanuel Macron in the French parliamentary elections. And the start of the Brexit negotiations. And Italy was forced to bail out two more banks. President Trump pulled out of the Paris climate change agreement – and in Brazil, President Michel Temer was accused of corruption – the first sitting President in Latin America’s largest country to face criminal charges. Anything else? Just another global ransomware attack… Continue reading →
It’s a tricky time just now on the financial markets, and what you are seeing in the news is not necessarily being played out in the model portfolios or the strategy funds. I think one of the main
reasons for this is that the US market is probably the only area that is moving forwards. The fixed income sector has had a good run since the summer, but even this is down over the last couple of months. In all fairness it should be, because some of the fixed income funds in our portfolios were up around 12% earlier this year. Fixed income should not behave like this.
Well it’s all over finally and the UK has got a result, we are leaving the EU. So what now for the financial markets? Well quite simply it is business as usual. And of course this was always going to be the case no matter which way the result had gone.
According to the bookmakers – whom as we know, are never far away from the result, it is likely to be a remain in the EU result. We just wanted to share with you the likely outcomes to the global financial markets whichever way the result does go.
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