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Let us invite you to travel back in time to June 2016, to the day after the Brexit referendum. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, campaigning in the US Presidential election is in full swing.
You are offered two glimpses into the future. The first is that two years on, the UK has apparently made no real progress in the Brexit negotiations. The second is that Donald Trump has been elected President and has had a successful meeting with Kim Jong-un. You would have dismissed both of them as ridiculous and yet that is exactly what June brought us, as Theresa May called yet another Brexit crisis meeting and President Trump met the leader of North Korea in Singapore.
…And then the President went on to announce a raft of tariffs on imported goods – from both China and Europe – which may well see the threatened global trade war develop. Both China and the EU were swift to announce retaliatory tariffs, and (unsurprisingly) June was a month in which none of the major stock markets we cover managed to gain any ground. Continue reading →
To say that March was a busy month is an understatement.
Russia went to the polls to elect a new President and, in the least surprising result of the year, Vladimir Putin won another six year term. With the Chinese Communist Party removing the rules limiting Xi Jinping to two terms in office, two of the world’s three superpowers now effectively have presidents for life. North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, jumped on the train and headed to Beijing for talks, ahead of his meetings with Moon Jae-in, the South Korean leader, and with Donald Trump. Presumably Kim and Xi Jinping did not discuss sanctions: China is supposedly imposing harsh UN sanctions on North Korea – and yet Kim saw his economy grow by more than 3% last year. ‘Curious and curious-er’ as Alice would have said. Continue reading →
Figures released at the end of January revealed that the final quarter of 2017 saw the economy expand by 0.5%. The Bank of England has now indicated that the pace of interest rate rises could speed up if the outlook remains positive.Although Mark Carney and his colleagues voted to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5% at their latest meeting, they did indicate that the rates will need to rise “earlier” and by “a somewhat greater extent” than previously thought. As a result of the Bank’s comments, the value of the pound jumped by about 1% against both the dollar and the euro.Continue reading →
November was a relatively disappointing month for world stock markets, with the majority of the markets we cover in this commentary losing ground in the month: however, the largest fall was just 3% so there were no real disasters. Pride of place went to the Dow Jones index in the US, which was up by 4% in the month as the President toured the Far East, intent on doing ever more trade deals. Continue reading →
After months of speculation, the Bank of England finally raised interest rates in the UK for the first time in over a decade. The increase from 0.25% to 0.5% might seem small, especially when you consider that the last time the interest rate was increased in July 2007 it was up to 5.75%, but the fact that interest rates are going up at all after more than ten years at rock bottom is significant. Continue reading →
The deputy governor of the Bank of England has stated that the bank should not be tempted to increase interest rates due to “imponderables” within the UK economy. The comments from Ben Broadbent, an ally of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), were published in an interview in mid-July and have suggested that any chance of borrowing costs rising soon are incredibly slim.
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